Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.650885 1.868034 2.098534 2.360951 2.650935 2.961090 3.317413
2024-12-29 1.439372 1.750742 2.101365 2.523618 3.016411 3.571364 4.241518
2025-01-05 1.184454 1.545804 1.976548 2.523632 3.195332 3.988210 4.989561
2025-01-12 0.997947 1.395747 1.896931 2.566655 3.429034 4.492221 5.890866
2025-01-19 0.831204 1.246819 1.800249 2.577656 3.625848 4.972724 6.813786
2025-01-26 0.727174 1.166386 1.782715 2.689697 3.965310 5.666900 8.073785
2025-02-02 0.630859 1.082406 1.749940 2.778004 4.283939 6.365537 9.406217
2025-02-09 0.538956 0.990309 1.693463 2.826290 4.552874 7.022714 10.742867
2025-02-16 0.462886 0.910548 1.644858 2.880640 4.836905 7.727295 12.207359
2025-02-23 0.381381 0.806645 1.543064 2.839629 4.973048 8.229667 13.423745
2025-03-02 0.305352 0.697264 1.415391 2.739709 5.005739 8.579395 14.442669
2025-03-09 0.261363 0.640032 1.370145 2.773053 5.257179 9.286859 16.060660
2025-03-16 0.215803 0.571707 1.297854 2.757284 5.438772 9.921587 17.653043
2025-03-23 0.190061 0.540555 1.292608 2.864893 5.847694 10.964618 19.984399
2025-03-30 0.153058 0.473727 1.203729 2.801147 5.944465 11.496416 21.525447
2025-04-06 0.127045 0.426601 1.147943 2.795145 6.147551 12.228593 23.459335
2025-04-13 0.103902 0.379910 1.084122 2.763202 6.297754 12.880618 25.305759
2025-04-20 0.090901 0.357952 1.073958 2.844668 6.678682 13.976989 28.001360
2025-04-27 0.078681 0.334430 1.055578 2.905530 7.024736 15.036327 30.703204
2025-05-04 0.066710 0.307454 1.022966 2.929025 7.295866 15.975655 33.250300
2025-05-11 0.056947 0.284419 0.996194 2.962588 7.591933 16.984826 35.990709
2025-05-18 0.045912 0.251800 0.935137 2.902163 7.675876 17.584992 38.004055
2025-05-25 0.035550 0.216504 0.857252 2.785524 7.619655 17.899393 39.492148